‘How I Predict the Future for My Store’ | Carol Schroeder

“The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior” is a popular mantra in the world of psychology. Whether it is true that you can predict an individual’s future actions based on their past may be debatable. But in business, the buying patterns of our customers are usually predictable enough that we can use their past buying as a factor in planning our future wholesale buying.

This means that if you sold out of boxed Christmas cards in mid-December, you probably need to order more for next year. If no one bought figurines of turkeys this season to decorate their Thanksgiving table, they are not likely to do so next year.

The fact that consumer behavior patterns are somewhat predictable (taking the weather and economic factors into account, of course, as well as changes in fashion and trends) makes it imperative that you keep seasonal records. They need not be elaborate, but any notes — written or photographic — will be helpful when you go to market in the coming months.

After we close on Christmas Eve, I spend some time jotting down observations about the seasonal merchandise that is left after the busy days before the holiday. It’s also helpful to do some note-taking a week or so earlier, because the items that sold as desperate last-minute purchases aren’t necessarily strong sellers. But because we do a post-holiday sale, I know I can’t look at what is left at inventory time to see which items sold at full price.

In our office, we have a ring-binder for each holiday (I know, very retro) and these notebooks go back several decades. It’s fun to reminisce about what sold well when we first opened our store — but it’s essential to know what’s sold well this season when I’m planning for 2026.

Editor’s note: Carol Schroeder is the co-owner of Orange Tree Imports in Madison, Wis, as well as the author of Specialty Shop Retailing and the Savvy Store Solutions column in GDA. This post is an update of a popular blog post from December 23, 2013.